The Project is a multi-country research initiative that seeks to explore how global and local political-economic forces shape the design, financing, and justice outcomes of energy transitions in Africa. Although the concept of “just transitions” has gained global traction—especially in industrialised countries—there is limited understanding of how climate geopolitics, economic competition, and structural inequalities affect just transition efforts in African contexts.

This project takes a critical look at the influence of global actors—including Western countries and China—on Africa’s access to green finance, investment, and technology. It particularly examines how global dynamics such as carbon border adjustment taxes, critical mineral extraction, and conditional loans are impacting the scope and fairness of just transitions in countries like Kenya and Nigeria.

Objectives

• To analyze, with a focus on climate finance, investment, and technology in the energy, forest and critical minerals sectors, the role of global political dynamics in shaping just transition for and in Africa.
• To evaluate the impact of economic competition among developed and emerging countries on the availability and terms of renewable energy technologies, investment and financing for African nations in general and Nigeria and Kenya in particular.
• To evaluate how global and local political factors shape just transitions programmes in the energy, critical minerals, and forest sectors in Nigeria and Kenya and the impact on the countries and local populations. 
• To identify the key challenges and opportunities that arise from these global influences, with a focus on achieving a just and equitable energy transition in Africa.
• To provide policy recommendations for African governments and regional organizations on how to effectively leverage or mitigate these external factors to achieve just transitions for and in Africa.

Research Questions

• RQ1. How do geopolitical strategies and economic competition among Western countries as well as well as between the West and China influence finance, investments and technology innovation for just transition in Africa?
• RQ2: What are the experiences of Nigeria and Kenya in attracting finance, investment, and technology for just transitions in the energy, critical minerals, and forest sectors, and how do global and local political-economic factors shape these outcomes and impact local populations?
• RQ3.  What ideas, opportunities, and institutions can address systemic barriers at global and national levels to enhance justice for African countries and populations, and how can African nations navigate these global dynamics to advance their just energy transition agendas?

Work Packages 

The research will proceed along the following specific but closely interacting work packages.

WP1: Framing, Synthesis, and Impact.

• WP 1 will develop a conceptual framework to guide the project. 

• This WP will be led by Prof Chukwumerije Okereke at the University of Bristol.

WP2: The Global Politics of Just Transitions for and in Africa

• Building on the conceptual framework established in WP1, this work package will investigate the global political dynamics influencing Africa’s efforts to secure finance, investment, and technology for just transitions, with a specific focus on the forest, energy, and critical minerals sectors.  

• This WP will be led by Dr Kennedy Mbeva at the University of Cambridge.

Combined WP 3 and 4: Political Economy of Just Transitions in Kenya and Nigeria

• Work Packages 3 and 4 will investigate how global and local political-economic factors shape just transition programs in Kenya and Nigeria, respectively, focusing on the forest, energy, and critical minerals sectors, and their impacts on local populations.

• WP3 will be led by Dr Joanes Atela from the Africa Research and Impact Network (ARIN) with assistance from Dr. Evlin Nyukuri from the University of Nairobi, Kenya.
• WP4 will be led by Dr. Essien (University of Calabar, Nigeria) with assistance from Prof. Orunye (Taraba State University, Nigeria).

Strategic Relevance

This project contributes to national, continental, and global dialogues on climate justice by generating evidence on how African countries like Kenya and Nigeria can navigate structural barriers and external pressures while promoting locally owned, socially just transition pathways.

Partners: